Causes and consequences of the fall of the French government
It came as no surprise to anyone that on September 8, François Bayrou lost a vote of confidence against himself and his government in the National Assembly after the opposition criticized his budget plan, which proposed austerity measures. It was like watching a movie filmed according to last year’s script again. The fall of the Bayrou government has once again brought to the fore the political instability of France. Emmanuel Macron, who is considered responsible for the latest crisis, is under pressure from the opposition to appoint a new prime minister as soon as possible. Beyond the event itself, however, it is worth examining what this crisis situation entails and what consequences it may have for Europe.
The countdown began on August 25, when François Bayrou unexpectedly announced that he had requested a vote of confidence against himself from the National Assembly, according to the Article 49.1 of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. At the end of a marathon day on Monday, the government was rejected by an overwhelming majority of 577 deputies with 364 votes (194 in favor and 15 abstentions). Never before in the history of the Fifth Republic has a prime minister requested this type of vote. Bayrou submitted the government’s resignation to the president on September 9.
The central problem: the lack of a majority
In France, especially since the 1970s, we have become accustomed to the “fact of majority”: the president of the republic is elected by direct universal suffrage and needs a majority, which he usually obtains. The rhythm of political life has become a routine of alternating right-wing and left-wing majorities. This system then gradually collapsed, and since Emmanuel Macron’s first presidency in 2017, the “majority fact” has completely faded into the background. The alternations have multiplied without an alternative, which has caused chronic disillusionment in both political camps. The far-right, which is proclaiming a new path, owes its advance precisely to this blurring of the left-right divide. The emergence of Emmanuel Macron in 2017 is also the result of the exhaustion of this divide. The president himself announced his policy with the rhetoric of “going beyond”, as if in response to the democratic crisis.
After coming to power, Macron has deepened this crisis even further by making the extremes even more extreme and ultimately polarizing political life, while pushing his own position ever further to the right. The President of the Republic has practically fueled the far-right and weakened the left.
Fragmentation occurs at all levels of the parliamentary structure. There are currently 11 parliamentary factions in the National Assembly, a record number. One of the most important consequences of this is that political parties are no longer able to organize public debate around a few coherent and simple ideas, thus further losing their social support. The tripartite division of political life makes it difficult to form a majority, which is further aggravated by the internal fragmentation of each bloc, which also makes political compromises difficult. We can add that the fragmentation and dispersion of the political identity of the voters is facilitated by the weakness and large number of parties.
Social crisis
Bloquons tout! – that is, Total blockade! This movement, announced in July via social networks, quickly went from confidential to national. The France Insoumise (LFI – France Unbowed) party, then the entire left, and the trade unions all embraced the cause of the movement announced for September 10. On Wednesday, up to 100,000 people may take to the streets to express their dissatisfaction.
The interesting thing about this mass movement is that it does not only want to express social dissatisfaction by taking to the streets, but also wants to send a message to the economic system as an anti-consumption day.
We are thinking in the wrong logic: growth versus competitiveness and the increasingly widening social scissors show this the most. When the democratic institutions do not follow social changes, we can tank then about post-democracy.
The crisis of governance or governability is related to the increasingly individualized and fragmented nature of society, which is characterized by increasing inequalities and a kind of separatism.
The crisis of the representative system – post-democracy
At the same time, this crisis cannot be explained exclusively by political games. Changes in the relationship to politics from below must also be taken into account. Since the early 2000s, the electoral mechanism itself has been called into question. The legitimacy that elections provide to governors is increasingly weak, as Pierre Rosanvallon explains. This is reinforced by strategic voting, which is widespread: people increasingly try to exclude certain candidates with “useful” votes, but they no longer really express their preferences, which weakens their commitment to the nomination of representatives and their legitimacy. Thus, the foundations of the electoral process have been weakened: we speak of “negative” democracy (we exclude rather than elect).
This distrust of politics is not unique to France. These mechanisms are present everywhere, in Europe and in the United States. Since the work of Colin Crouch, political scientists have also spoken of “post-democracies” where decisions are increasingly slipping out of the hands of political power.
Distrust and disillusionment with politics
The economic crisis experienced over the past year is part of an even broader trend that has led to a significant increase in distrust of politics.
Around 20% of French people trust politicians. The French therefore consider the political class incapable of solving the problems. In fact, they consider it unworthy. We can therefore rightly ask whether this is a systemic problem or whether the political elite is not up to the task?
The liberal economic policy based on voluntarism pursued under the presidency of Nicolas Sarkozy and then François Hollande has undermined the idea that politics can bring about change. The re-election of Emmanuel Macron has also been disappointing. It has fostered an anti-elite sentiment that was strongly expressed in the yellow vest crisis of 2018. Ultimately, both camps are disillusioned and polarizing mechanisms are developing. Thus, the Socialists created the France Unbowed party (LFI), which is the result of the disappointment of the left coming to power. The far right is also largely the result of political disillusionment. These forces (France Unbowed and National Rally – RN) systematically oppose any compromise.
Globalization, Europeanization, the power of large financial groups and lobbies have reduced political power and its room for manoeuvre. However, politics creates expectations. This situation is particularly characteristic of France, where expectations are very high for the “omnipotent state” (État Providence).
The current situation favors the far right, because distrust of politics fuels anti-parliamentarism and reinforces the idea that a political force that has not exercised its responsibilities can be a solution. This explains the seemingly unstoppable advance of the National Rally. This is also due to the fact that a significant part of society agrees with the right-wing issues: immigration, security, rejection of ecology, etc. In this context, a victory for the far right may seem inevitable, although it is questionable in what role, since Marine Le Pen was banned by the court from participating in public affairs for three years. It is also questionable what kind of staff the party that emerged from the National Front will be able to put together to lead the country, made up of politicians, most of whom have no political experience. However, it is certain that if the far-right comes to power, it will also have to face the test of power and will certainly disappoint, without resolving the current political crisis.
Escalating economic crisis
The primary objective of the Bayrou government was to solve, or at least alleviate, the country’s extremely worrying economic crisis. The economic situation of the country, which has accumulated a debt of 3,300 billion euros, is undoubtedly worrying. However, the blackmailing tone of the prime minister, who was forced to resign on Tuesday, did not seem at all convincing to his compatriots. Understandably, since he did not propose any program, he only threatened negative measures (freezing costs, abolishing 2 public holidays).
Opinions are also divided on the economic situation. Left-wing organizations see a partial solution to social inequalities through a tax proposed by economist Gabriel Zucman. The debate over the Zucman taxhighlights the political obstacle that must be overcome: the power of the financial oligarchy. As long as political power has to bow to finance, the deceptive logic of post-democracy will continue. However, inequalities have increased to such an extent that they may require societies to be brought into balance. In this sense, post-democracy is not inevitable.
In France, the commitment to social justice and redistribution is very strong. It is no coincidence that parties, especially those on the extreme edges of the political spectrum, are fond of citing the fact that the elite may be forced to yield under pressure.
How to get out of the deadlock?
Can the current political deadlock be resolved by dissolving the National Assembly and calling new elections, or even by early presidential elections? This is doubtful. It would be naive to believe in an “institutional solution” that would resolve this political crisis. Democracy is a living, constantly evolving system that does not consist only of electoral rules and institutional mechanisms.
For years, all politicians, including Emmanuel Macron himself, have promised to reform the electoral system and introduce a proportional electoral system that would faithfully reflect the preferences of the voters.
Another “solution” that is also regularly emphasized is the transition to the Sixth Republic. The latter would undoubtedly allow the renewal of the institutions associated with the exhausted presidential system. All the more so because today the vertical organization of power does not work in a society characterized by horizontal dynamics. The idea of a president of the republic increases the disappointment, as it creates a “savior” who cannot keep his promises.
Limiting the president’s powers could also be a partial solution. As could reversing the calendar, i.e., having parliamentary elections precede presidential elections.
Establishing a new balance between representative and participatory democracy, creating a more continuous democracy, less focused on elections, is also among the “solution proposals”. For a long time, elections were enough for democracy to function, but this cycle is over. New approaches and methods (referendums, citizens’ conventions) must be experimented with in order to find a new balance between participation and representation.
The next, please!
The National Rally demands the re-call of the National Assembly elections, while the radical left-wing France Unbowed demands the resignation of President Emmanuel Macron.
In her speech in Hénin-Beaumont on Monday, Marine Le Pen said her party and herself are ready to govern, despite a court ruling that banned her from running for election for three years. But is the National Rally really ready for this?
Emmanuel Macron’s camp is also not short of candidates and potential successors. The name of former Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu has been mentioned several times, as have the names of Labor Minister Catherine Vautrin and Finance Minister Eric Lombard. The President of the National Assembly, Yael Braun-Pivet, “says she is ready.” In any case, this list of names indicates that the new Prime Minister will once again be outside the so-called central bloc. However, the outcome of this is also uncertain, meaning that the same thing will happen to this government as to the previous ones.
Without recognizing and remedying the internal flaws inherent in the current democratic functioning, we cannot expect France to find a way out of the spiral of successive crises.
Picture: Markus Winkler / Pixabay
