Bosnia and Herzegovina is a special entity made up of two parts, the Republika Srpska, a Bosnian Serb Republic populated mainly by Serbs, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated mainly by Croats and Bosniaks.
The country in the past years has refused to accept sanctions against Russian aggression because of a pro-Russian Serb veto, while Bosniaks (and Croats living there) are increasingly moving closer to NATO, a dichotomy that naturally leads to tensions both inside and outside the state. Some actions and statements suggested that the Serbs are seeking to break up the federation. Several years ago Milorad Dodik (a Serb member of the state presidency) announced the withdrawal from the federal institutions and the creation of a Serb single-nation army, among other things. Other developments in this are still to come, but they will not be able to leave the federation without political consequences. According to the High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, the Serbian part was working to undermine the constitutional order and the Dayton Treaty, as there was a persistent political crisis due to lack of cooperation, meaning the ruling government was looking to the international community for help to make the state and peace sustainable, nevertheless the country has been steadily developing its European political and economic interests.
Two years ago EU ministers agreed to give Bosnia and Herzegovina the green light to become an EU candidate country. This was endorsed by EU heads of state and government at the EU summit on 15 December 2023. The move is not only symbolically important for the country, as all Western Balkan countries except Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are already negotiating some form of accession chapters. The country may take several years to adopt the accession criteria due to the complex legal and state structures resulting from the presence of many national minorities. For a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country, maintaining a fragile peace is a major challenge, as it has to ensure democratic institutional functioning, economic and anti-corruption reforms and meet serious security requirements in exchange for membership.
Bosnia and Herzegovina has come a long way since it was identified as a potential candidate country at the Thessaloniki summit in 2003, and after a series of agreements, the country formally applied for EU membership in 2016. Despite this, the country is home to the EU’s oldest military mission. The EUFOR/Althea mission took over the peacekeeping role from NATO in December 2004, and is still maintained by a contingent of 1,100 troops.
At present, the country’s internal peace is secured by a strong multi-national, including Hungarian, military presence, as evidenced by the EUFOR Quick Response 2022 military exercise, which took place between 17 October and 20 November 2022, with the coordinated participation of nearly 20 European nations. While maintaining the historically fragile relationship between the Croatian minority, the Republika Srpska and the Bosnian state authorities will continue to require a serious effort from EU member states, the EUFOR 2022 has been a key element in the EU’s efforts to ensure the security of the Croatian minority in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The current endorsement is interesting in the light of the fact that the leader of the Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, has stated that Kosovo will never be recognised as an independent state. In any case, the growing Chinese and Russian influence in the region is a major headache for the EU, which is why it was important to extend its support. Russian revisionist aspirations have begun to gain momentum because of the historical links with the Serbian minority, while China has serious economic interests in the country, whether in the energy sector or in infrastructure projects.
While looking past the geopolitical landscape on a European level, eight years after Bosnia Herzegovina first applied for EU membership, EU leaders with the endorsement of the European Commission decided to open accession negotiations with Bosnia Hercegovina. This completes the circle as all Western Balkans candidates are now on the track for full membership.
As Borjana Krišto, Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina stated:
“Mutual determination and effort have resulted in achieving the necessary level of compliance with the requirements and criteria. We remain strongly determined to continue the work that will result in further progress and development of Bosnia & Herzegovina”
Hopefully this will allow the reconciliation within the multi-party and multi-ethnic state in order to increase regional stability. The EU’s mutual recognition of the European path for Bosnia Herzegovina comes with great responsibility for European leaders, meaning that they will need to put forward an accession path that is attainable within a decade for the country. The integration of the region will be a crucial point for the upcoming Hungarian Presidency, where hopefully a Western Balkans Summit can create a clearer path to accession with balanced expectations, taking into account social, cultural and political realities.
Photo credit: europeanwesternbalkans.com
