Can the EU adapt quickly enough to an increasingly unstable security environment?
Europe marked the 76th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration on 9 May, the 1950 proposal by French foreign minister Robert Schuman that placed Franco-German coal and steel production under a common authority, laying the political and institutional foundations of what would later become the European Union. Often presented as a peace project born from the devastation of the Second World War, the declaration also reflected an early attempt to anchor European security through economic and political interdependence.
Against that historical backdrop, EU defence ministers met in Brussels on 12 May for the Foreign Affairs Council in its defence configuration, chaired by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas. The discussions focus on continued military support for Ukraine, the implications of the conflict in the Middle East for European security, the EU’s updated threat analysis, and the EU defence readiness agenda.
Seventy-six years after the Schuman Declaration framed integration as a means of preventing war within Europe, the EU now faces growing pressure to respond collectively to conflicts within and beyond its borders. The agenda in Brussels reflects a broader question shaping current debates on European integration:
Can the EU adapt quickly enough to an increasingly unstable security environment?
An Escalating Security Environment
On 28 February 2026, US and Israeli forces launched large-scale strikes against Iran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior members of the Iranian leadership. Iran has responded by striking US bases across the region and Israel. The European Council has acknowledged that the military escalation in the Middle East is causing global instability, the negative consequences of which are already being felt in Europe. EU foreign ministers expressed particular concern about the security of maritime routes and risks to regional stability, global trade, and energy prices.
This context of geopolitical instability is influencing the priorities and direction of the Union’s forthcoming European Security Strategy.
The Readiness Roadmap 2030
The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, presented in October 2025, sets out clear objectives and milestones, i.e., coalition formation by early 2026, industrial capacity mapping by mid-2026, and full delivery through the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) instrument by 2030. The numbers behind the roadmap reflect a genuine shift in European political will. EU member states’ combined defence expenditure reached €343 billion in 2024 and is estimated by the Council of the EU at €381 billion in 2025, equivalent to around 2.1% of EU GDP. Collectively, this places EU defence spending above NATO’s long-standing 2% benchmark for the first time.
Foreign Affairs Council Meeting: Program & Press Conference
Three items were on the programme.
First, Ukraine.
Ministers exchanged views with Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov via video conference, alongside NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska. The focus was on how EU military support continues to adapt, including through the SAFE instrument, of which 18 member states have already had their national defence investment plans approved between February and April 2026. Within this broader framework, EU Defence Ministers also discussed the operationalisation of the €90 billion support package for Ukraine and the deepening of EU–Ukraine defence industry cooperation, signalling a shift from short-term assistance toward structured, production-oriented partnerships.
As emphasised during the press briefing by Kaja Kallas, the strategic direction is shifting from emergency funding toward industrial integration. The objective is increasingly to work “together with industry on ramping up defence production”.
Second, the Middle East dimension. Foreign ministers also reviewed EU engagement with Gulf partners, including prospects for a structured security and defence partnership. Particular attention was given to maritime stability in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical corridor for global energy flows and EU supply security. Overall, the Council stressed that instability in the region is directly affecting Europe through security, trade, and energy interdependence.
Third, defence readiness and strategic planning. Ministers were briefed on the updated EU Threat Analysis, which is expected to be the empirical foundation for the new EU Security Strategy. Implementation discussions also covered flagship initiatives such as the SAFE framework and broader efforts.
The European Parliament Research Service notes that some member states, notably France, Italy, and Germany, have expressed reservations about specific flagship initiatives pointing to unresolved questions on governance and coordination within existing EU frameworks and NATO.
Defence and Security as priorities
European defence is increasingly becoming one of the EU’s defining political priorities. This shift is particularly visible in the Union’s growing focus on defence readiness, strategic coordination, and security cooperation. The political will is more visible than at any point in recent decades, driven by growing instability on Europe’s borders, the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty surrounding the future of transatlantic security guarantees. The discussions taking place in Brussels therefore reflect more than a response to immediate crises. Increasingly, defence and security are becoming central dimensions of the Union’s future political and strategic direction. In many ways, this is a broader reflection of a world that has become markedly more unstable, fragmented, and militarised.
Photo: AI Generated
