The Illusion of De-escalation in the U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict
Since 28 February 2026, more than 3,500 people have been killed in Iran as a result of U.S.–Israeli military strikes, with significant civilian casualties among them. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes against Hezbollah have resulted in at least 1,500 deaths and thousands more wounded, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
The conflict’s impact has extended beyond the battlefield to the global economy. Iran has practically closed or restricted the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic maritime chokepoint through which about 20 % of the world’s oil supply passes, disrupting global supply chain. Based on reports from early 2026, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have played a major role in driving global energy prices sharply higher. Oil reached a peak of $126 per barrel, marking it one of the most intense shocks to energy markets in history.
The Ceasefire Agreement
On April 7, 2026, The United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, hours before President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or see a “whole civilization” die.
Tehran’s proposal demanded that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened “under the coordination of the armed forces of Iran”, included establishment of a “secure transit protocol” in the waterway, and called for the war against “all components” of Iran’s regional proxy forces to end. The proposal further called for U.S. forces to withdraw from “all bases and points of deployment within the region”
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also outlined key elements including compensation to Iran, lifting of international sanctions and unfreezing of assets, and a binding UN resolution to secure any ultimate peace deal. Some versions of the statement distributed by Iranian state media in both Farsi and English also included a claim by Iran of a right to nuclear enrichment.
Benjamin Netanyahu quickly clarified that Israel’s ongoing campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon was not covered by the agreement. Within hours, Israeli airstrikes resumed, killing at least 254 people in Lebanon after Iran-US ceasefire. Simultaneously, Iran parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement, within 24 hours of its announcement. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that the ceasefire terms were “clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both”. By 9 April, the Strait of Hormuz had been closed again.
Vice President JD Vance, who headed the U.S. negotiating delegation, spoke publicly while still in Budapest on Wednesday, characterizing the ceasefire as a “fragile truce”. The Vice President warned that President Trump remains “impatient to make progress” and cautioned Iranian officials that “if they don’t engage in good faith they’re going to find out that Trump is not one to mess around”.
The White House announced that Vice President Vance would lead a U.S. delegation in talks with Iran in Pakistan beginning April 11, accompanied by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, with discussions to begin Saturday morning local time in Islamabad.
European leaders have been largely sidelined from the diplomatic process and negotiations, with key issues affecting their own interests, such as access through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, continued disruption to Mediterranean trade, energy supplies, and humanitarian conditions. A joint leaders’ statement endorsed by President Macron (France), Prime Minister Meloni (Italy), Chancellor Merz (Germany), Prime Minister Starmer (United Kingdom), Prime Minister Albanese (Australia), Prime Minister Carney (Ireland), President Dan (Romania), acting Prime Minister Frederiksen (Denmark), Prime Minister Frostadóttir (Iceland), Prime Minister Jetten (Netherlands), Prime Minister Kristersson (Sweden), Prime Minister Michal (Czech Republic), Prime Minister Mitsotakis (Greece), Prime Minister Montenegro (Montenegro), Prime Minister Sanchez (Spain), Prime Minister Siliņa (Latvia), Prime Minister Støre (Norway), President Stubb (Finland), Prime Minister Takaichi (Japan), President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council António Costa welcomed the two-week ceasefire and called upon “all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Lebanon”.
EU Policy Frameworks
The crisis has revived debates over Europe’s strategic autonomy and energy security. The European Commission and member states are accelerating efforts to diversify suppliers, increase Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports, expand renewable energy, and strengthen cross-border electricity and gas networks. These efforts build on the EU’s post‑2022 energy strategy, which aimed to cut dependence on dominant suppliers and build resilience through infrastructure and regulatory reforms such as the REPowerEU plan and gas storage rules requiring high reserve levels ahead of winter seasons.
As energy and economic stress intensify from renewed geopolitical shocks, pressure grows on EU budgets and pacts that combine humanitarian, development, and diplomatic resources. Funding that was initially planned for longer‑term development cooperation and structural reform is increasingly needed for emergency response and stabilization programs. In practice, this means that agreements with multi‑year development commitments may be delayed or reprioritized in favor of immediate humanitarian assistance and energy market stabilization measures.
Photo: AI generated
