How EU Carbon Tariffs Are Reshaping Mediterranean Trade
On January 1, 2026, the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase, marking a fundamental shift in how the EU approaches climate policy and international trade. After more than two years adapting to the new requirements, EU importers now face financial obligations for the carbon emissions embedded in goods from six carbon-intensive sectors: iron and steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen. For Mediterranean economies, particularly those in North Africa and the Middle East, this policy creates pressure to transform their industries or risk losing EU market access.
The Mediterranean at Crossroads
Given their strong economic reliance on EU markets, the CBAM carries significant implications for Mediterranean countries. The European Union is the primary export destination for several North African Mediterranean countries, accounting for 70.5% of Morocco’s exports, 81.4% of Tunisia’s exports, and 26.5% of Egypt’s exports. Algeria, whose economy is heavily dependent on energy exports to Europe, sends roughly half to two-thirds of its exports to the EU, though exact percentages fluctuate with hydrocarbon prices. Turkey emerged as one of the largest exporters of CBAM-covered goods to the EU during the 2023-2025 transitional phase, accounting for 12% of overall mass volume respectively.
According to EU Commission data, iron and steel represented 69% of CBAM goods imported, followed by fertilizers at 15%, cement at 11%, and aluminum at 5%.
Immediate Impacts
Carbon charges on Mediterranean exports directly affect European farmers and food costs. The EU imports approximately 30% of its nitrogen fertilizer from Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria among major suppliers.
At current EU carbon prices, Egyptian urea, Europe’s most imported fertilizer, are expected to face an additional €40 charge per tonne under CBAM. For a typical 10,000 tonne shipment, importers pay an extra €400,000 in carbon costs. These costs move through the supply chain from importers to distributors to farmers. European farmers already spend approximately 14% of their production budget on fertilizers, and this new carbon charge would increase fertilizer prices further.
For Hungarian farmers specifically, this matters because Hungary relies heavily on imported fertilizers. Higher fertilizer costs mean higher food production costs, which ultimately affect food prices for consumers.
Steel and aluminum producers face the same challenge: lower emissions only reduce CBAM costs if companies can prove it with verified data. Turkey, a major steel exporter to the EU, uses electric arc furnaces that emit less carbon than traditional blast furnaces. However, Turkish producers must document these lower emissions through independent auditors. Without verification, importers pay based on high “default” values set by the EU, which assume higher emissions regardless of actual production methods.
Mediterranean Responses
Mediterranean countries are adapting to these carbon charges in different ways. Morocco is pursuing a proactive strategy, using CBAM as an opportunity to attract investments in cleaner manufacturing and renewable energy. Egypt has also updated its industrial plans to include hydrogen-based production, recognizing that meeting EU requirements means modernizing how factories operate. Turkey introduced its own carbon pricing system, which allows Turkish producers to show they already pay for their carbon emissions at home, potentially reducing the costs under CBAM.
But compliance comes with significant costs and complexity. Starting in 2026, importers must file annual reports, buy CBAM certificates, and provide verified emissions data from independent auditors. For Mediterranean producers, this means investing in new monitoring equipment, hiring verification specialists, and training staff to track emissions accurately. These administrative and technical costs are particularly challenging for countries with limited budgets and fewer technical experts.
Looking forward
The European Commission proposed in December 2025 to expand CBAM to 180 downstream products (such as car parts, appliances, and machinery containing steel or aluminum) starting in 2028, though this remains under legislative negotiation. This expansion would mean that Mediterranean manufacturers of finished goods, not just raw material producers, will face carbon charges when exporting to Europe in the future.
The EU has promised to help developing countries adapt to CBAM, but specific funding programs to support Mediterranean partners remain limited. For Mediterranean exporters, the gradual phase-in period (2026-2034) offers time to adapt. Countries investing in solar energy, modern factories, and emissions monitoring can become clean industry leaders with direct access to European markets. Those who delay risk losing both market share and the chance to participate in the global shift toward low-carbon trade.
Whether CBAM drives real environmental progress in the Mediterranean depends on support for clean technology, financing, and training. Mediterranean countries have exceptional solar and wind potential that could power cleaner factories. The Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy and Clean Tech Initiative (T-MED), launched as part of the Pact for the Mediterranean, aims to connect this renewable energy potential with industrial needs.
Photo: AI created
